Autism Isn't Epedemic

Which brings us to the point of the local news station WJLA-TV 7. They're reporting on the epidemic called AUTISM. It's another not quite true news report that's had us doing the search and checking our facts. We had to leave the comfortable confines of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and run all over the National Vital Statistics which directs me to the EXCEL spreadsheet that we don't completely understand but gave us the information we needed to compile the table of deaths in the District of Columbia, Maryland and Virginia jurisdictions.

All while investigating the connection between Autism and the flu vaccine. The unrealistic fear is giving your child the vaccine will give them autism. Of course the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says there is no connection. Their the government and their distributing the vaccine. "Since 2001, with the exception of some influenza (flu) vaccines, thimerosal is not used as a preservative in routinely recommended childhood vaccines."

Speaking of getting things wrong the big boys at the New York Times (or rather reporter Roni Caryn Rabin) misreported the story that The Philadelphia Inquirer correctly reported connecting autism with higher mercury levels. The Philadelphia Inquirer gets it completely right while they leave it out: "The children with autism actually had lower levels of mercury. When researchers adjusted the results for fish consumption - autistic children tend to be picky eaters and so consume less fish, which contains mercury - their levels were comparable to those with typical development, as well as a representative national sample."

The epidemic that WJLA-TV 7 is reporting comes from a report that estimates in excess of the numbers given by the CDC. "It is estimated that between 1 in 100 and 1 in 300 with an average of 1 in 150 children in the United States have an ASD." To support WJLA the CDC uses from 2000 data in its 2007 opinion.

To be critical of WJLA the report uses parent-reported diagnosis and we accept that it doesn't matter how infrequently a piano falls on a persons head if you're the person that has a piano falling on your head. The odds don't matter when its happening to you. From the Official Journal of the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP): "The prevalence of parent-reported diagnosis of ASD among US children aged 3 to 17 years was estimated from the 2007 National Survey of Children's Health (sample size: 78037). A child was considered to have ASD if a parent/guardian reported that a doctor or other health care provider had ever said that the child had ASD and that the child currently had the condition. The point-prevalence for ASD was calculated for those children meeting both criteria. We examined sociodemographic factors associated with current ASD and with a past (but not current) ASD diagnosis. The health care experiences for children in both ASD groups were explored."

Since the report is published in AAP we thought they might be the source of epidemic fear but a search of recent documents from the Official Journal of the American Academy of Pediatrics (APP) doesn't produce those results. APP considers childhood obesity and asthma at epidemic levels but not autism.

The real death statistics are the standards: cancer, heart disease and Cerebrovascular disease (CVD) in Maryland and Virginia. The number three (3) cause of death in the District is accidents CVD (strokes) are fourth. Accidents are the fourth (4) cause of death in Virginia based on 2006 data. Though they actively kill more residents than anything other causes none are considered epidemic. That's the real news.