That's a Fact, Jack! (or Jill)

...as the case may be. We're not sexist! Just paraphrasing Bill Murray from STRIPES (1981). We heard pandemic when the World Health Organization (WHO) said it. We knew what the word meant and when everybody said don't worry and don't panic we knew different. We knew not to panic but concerned we were and said. In that vain we have to call you attention to the numbers that some might be frighten by in the latest report from the online journal Emerging Infectious Diseases gave Associated Press (AP), Reuters, Wall St Journal, and WedMD which had the very scary headline: "140 Times More Early Swine Flu Than Reported."

"Here's the thing" to quote Monk. As scary as the headlines might be we think it's worst than that. Two things happened. One the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) changed its graphics concerning the numbers and how the numbers are reported. They reset their figures and started only publicly counting the deaths of children. The numbers were worst than reported.

"Through July 2009, a total of 43,677 laboratory-confirmed cases of influenza A pandemic (H1N1) 2009 were reported in the United States, which is likely a substantial underestimate of the true number. Correcting for under-ascertainment using a multiplier model, we estimate that 1.8 million–5.7 million cases occurred, including 9,000–21,000 hospitalizations." (PDF)

The latest report is based on figures that are restricted based on the suggestions of the CDC. Under what you can do to stay healthy: "Stay home if you get sick.

JURISDICTIONS 2009 2008 2007 District of Columbia Baltimore, MD Richmond / Norfolk, VA 97 627 208 67 680 179 54 541 191 DEATH TOTALS WEEK 41 932 926 786

CDC recommends that you stay home from work or school and limit contact with others to keep from infecting them." It's right under their first suggestion: "Get vaccinated." No where does the CDC suggest that you go to your local hospital for treatment or to report your illness. Their suggestion is to hide yourself. Do not disclose your illness. Keep it quiet.

The report deals with estimates from "April–July 2009" this was when the pandemic was at is smallest. Stories abounded on the how "much ado about nothing" although every such story ignored the fact that this virus started earlier than flu ever starts. The CDC and history showed that the apex for infections occur in February so even having a vaccine available by October would protect more American than ever before. You'd be ahead of the game. It was wrong.

The CDC has changed its charts only once before in reporting the number of deaths as a result of the H1N1 flu. The first time they reported only verified number of infection. Now they admit "virtually everything that's circulating now is the 2009 H1N1 influenza strain." (CDC).

That's why we say and agree with the report that the numbers are larger but we think that a pandemic is a PANDEMIC and the number will be worst IF we don't get the vaccines distributed much sooner. Pregnant women and children are important. Extremely important - unfortunately in a sinking boat (a pandemic) every man / woman for themselves. To remind everyone the government only has ten (10) per cent of the available vaccine.

Notice the second change by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) the charts used to show the reported infections makes it difficult to determine the weeks reported and makes no comparison to prior years as earlier charts showed. The report is based on the smallest amount of reported cases. The actually numbers are consistent with pandemic numbers.

(O)ver the next several weeks it should become more easily available. And as I've been saying each day we are seeing forward progress. We're expecting a lot of vaccination effort this is weekend in a number of places. - Anne Schuchat, the CDC Director Of The National Center For Immunization And Respiratory Diseases (HEAR)

There are shortages because the for profit industry has sufficient supplies. The general public has shortages. We're in line for the discount vaccines, the left overs.

"The commercial sector is increasing production of the Tamiflu and, of course, there is also Ralenza available. Important to say that capsule production is what is -- has really been increased. There are more and more capsules being made or shipped out. And what we want parents to know is that capsules are fine for kids, even kids that can't swallow pills because there's a way for the pharmacist or for you at home to convert that capsule into a liquid." - Anne Schuchat, (CDC) the Director Of The National Center For Immunization And Respiratory Diseases (HEAR)

This isn't any kind of conspiracy and we don't mean to even suggest such a thing so: "Calm Down!" We love conspiracies but we agree most (read most) people will survive their infections. Our suggestions has been to tell someone for your own protection and have someone to check on you when infected. To which we'd like to update that information with IF you have private insurance and IF your doctor has access to Tamiflu the "antiviral" get it! Recent research shows that the antivirals reduce the symptoms and speeds recover. Yes it can create other problems and indeed this H1N1 may be a result of that (speculation - ignore).

We could be wrong but we don't think so!